Frankel and Lee (1998) show that the value‐to‐price ratio (Vf/P) predicts future abnormal returns for up to three years, where Vf is an estimate of fundamental value based on a residual income valuation framework operationalized using analyst earnings forecasts. In this study, we examine whether the Vf/P effect is due to market mispricing or omitted risk factors. We find that the Vf/P effect is partially concentrated around the future earnings announcements, consistent with the mispricing explanation. On using an extensive set of risk proxies, suggested by Gebhardt et al. (2001) and Gode and Mohanram (2001), we also find that Vf/P is significantly related to some risk proxies. However, after controlling for these risk factors, Vf/P continues to exhibit a significant positive association with future returns suggesting that these risk factors are not responsible for the Vf/P effect. Overall, the results seem consistent with the mispricing explanation for the Vf/P effect.
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1 April 2003
Research Article|
April 01 2003
Residual‐Income‐Based Valuation Predicts Future Stock Returns: Evidence on Mispricing vs. Risk Explanations
Lee‐Seok Hwang;
Lee‐Seok Hwang
bBaruch College, The City University of New York and The Chinese University of Hong Kong (visiting).
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Mark A. Trombley
Mark A. Trombley
cThe University of Arizona.
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Online ISSN: 1558-7967
Print ISSN: 0001-4826
American Accounting Association
2003
The Accounting Review (2003) 78 (2): 377–396.
Citation
Ashiq Ali, Lee‐Seok Hwang, Mark A. Trombley; Residual‐Income‐Based Valuation Predicts Future Stock Returns: Evidence on Mispricing vs. Risk Explanations. The Accounting Review 1 April 2003; 78 (2): 377–396. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr.2003.78.2.377
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